Today’s post is written by Michael Green, Senior Commercial Loan Originator with Counsel Mortgage Group, LLC. Mike writes monthly on the commercial mortgage market. Check back each month for his commentary. The graph immediately below is from 3-13-26, 2 weeks into the Iran War. In January, forecasters, economists, etc. were fairly unified in forecasting a 10 yr. bond range of 4-4.5% for the year. Forecasts were also clustered around the Fed reducing fed funds by 50 basis points, likely in the last ½ year. Fed funds are now 3.50 bid, 3.75 ask. (Yes, there’s a bid/ask structure to fed funds,...
Commercial Loans
ANOTHER GULF WAR – WHAT ABOUT OIL
Today’s post is written by Michael Green, Senior Commercial Loan Originator with Counsel Mortgage Group, LLC. Mike writes monthly on the commercial mortgage market. Check back each month for his commentary. As a commercial real estate broker, I specialized in the gas station sub-segment of retail for about 25 years. During that period, I had adequate time to learn about the upstream and midstream economics of oil, and energy in general. In this continuation of the “information age” we are fed a continuous feed of blow-by-blow activities in the Middle East, and a variety of opinions on the economic and...
March 19, 2026March 19, 2026counselmortgage
FORGET THE UMBRELLA, HEAD FOR THE LIFEBOATS
Today’s post is written by Michael Green, Senior Commercial Loan Originator with Counsel Mortgage Group, LLC. Mike writes monthly on the commercial mortgage market. Check back each month for his commentary. Unless you live in a cave, you’re aware of gold’s incredible run in the wake of the declining dollar (USD), and recently, the inevitable “correction” … down about 11%. The catalyst: the nomination of Kevin Warsh to serve as the next chair of the Fed. Without getting into the weeds reviewing Warsh’s qualifications & philosophy of interest rate management, his previous criticisms of current Fed chief Powell imply...
February 4, 2026February 4, 2026counselmortgage
INFLATION VS. LABOR – WHAT’S A FED TO DO?
Today’s post is written by Michael Green, Senior Commercial Loan Originator with Counsel Mortgage Group, LLC. Mike writes monthly on the commercial mortgage market. Check back each month for his commentary. Considering inflation … U.S. businesses ended 2025 with their most subdued inflation outlook of the year, according to new data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s December Business Inflation Expectations Survey. Firms’ year-ahead inflation expectations held steady at 2.2%, matching November’s reading and marking the lowest level recorded in 2025 – an encouraging signal for policymakers seeking confirmation that inflation continues to decelerate. The December report showed...
January 12, 2026January 12, 2026counselmortgage
SLOWLY IT TURNS
Today’s post is written by Michael Green, Senior Commercial Loan Originator with Counsel Mortgage Group, LLC. Mike writes monthly on the commercial mortgage market. Check back each month for his commentary. CRE mortgage lenders appear to be shifting away from the defensive stance that has characterized the past several years. Industry data shows underwriting discipline in CRE lending is showing signs of softening amid dynamic deal flow, stabilizing costs, and intense competition. These changes may not be readily observable in your market. Key metrics from CBRE’s Q3-25 report reveal a subtle, yet telling recalibration: the average loan-to-value ratio rose...
December 8, 2025December 8, 2025counselmortgage
EVERYBODY IS BANKABLE
Today’s post is written by Michael Green, Senior Commercial Loan Originator with Counsel Mortgage Group, LLC. Mike writes monthly on the commercial mortgage market. Check back each month for his commentary. I recently received a call from a prospective buyer of a small business that included the real estate. He called to inquire about financing for the acquisition – could it be done with 10% down. He had talked with the listing broker/agent for the business, and had been assured he could complete the acquisition utilizing “creative” financing. He was also told that the business had been approved...
October 27, 2025October 27, 2025counselmortgage
THE CHANGING TIDES – SURFS UP!
Today’s post is written by Michael Green, Senior Commercial Loan Originator with Counsel Mortgage Group, LLC. Mike writes monthly on the commercial mortgage market. Check back each month for his commentary. As the CRE market continues to retreat-pause-advance and repeat, driven by economic and political uncertainty, community banks and credit unions are recalibrating their lending strategies – often in subtle but significant ways. These smaller financial institutions are navigating the challenging CRE landscape in spite of rising refinancing risks and changing borrower behavior. An encouraging trend among these lenders is their ability to renew or reprice many loans without much...
August 11, 2025August 11, 2025counselmortgage
LOOKING THROUGH THE FOG
Today’s post is written by Michael Green, Senior Commercial Loan Originator with Counsel Mortgage Group, LLC. Mike writes monthly on the commercial mortgage market. Check back each month for his commentary. Since the beginning of the year (Trump’s inauguration), visibility into investment and finance markets has been overridden by political chaos. What we used to be fed as daily news and updates has been buried by the barrage of domestic and global events. We have had to go to some efforts, even extremes, to track the pulse of CRE activity and financing. What has been going on behind the...
July 9, 2025July 9, 2025counselmortgage
PRESIDENT TRUMP IS IN YOUR CORNER FOR CRE
Today’s post is written by Michael Green, Senior Commercial Loan Originator with Counsel Mortgage Group, LLC. Mike writes monthly on the commercial mortgage market. Check back each month for his commentary. Where do you find the confidence to invest in CRE in the current economic and geopolitical environment? In our BLOG 2 months ago, Jan. 25, I suggested that the market had been lulled into anticipating capital market behavior by Fed policies, i.e., watching the Fed Funds rate and gauging future actions by their narrative that followed the FOMC meetings. Now, however, given the new administration, Trump and Company,...
April 2, 2025April 2, 2025john
TRUMP OPENS THE GATE FOR SMALL BUSINESS TO MAGA
Today’s post is written by Michael Green, Senior Commercial Loan Originator with Counsel Mortgage Group, LLC. Mike writes monthly on the commercial mortgage market. Check back each month for his commentary. On Jan. 31 Senator Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) appeared before the Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee for a confirmation hearing for her proposed post as SBA Administrator. Senator Todd Young (R-IN) chairs this Committee and directed the hearing. A number of to-do’s were discussed in the hearing. (Identified by Loeffler as improvements to make, and confirmed by Young as supported by the Committee.) · Reduce barriers to access of capital...
February 24, 2025February 24, 2025john