Today’s post is written by Michael Green, Senior Commercial Loan Originator with Counsel Mortgage Group, LLC. Mike writes monthly on the commercial mortgage market. Check back each month for his commentary. The 10-year Treasury yield is more important to CRE than whatever the level of the federal funds rate may be. That’s why the recent direction of this benchmark’s yield is making many investors nervous. The Fed dropped fed funds rates in both November and December, and the 10-year Treasury did a zoom maneuver! What’s with that? Reflation risks are becoming more evident, with recent data pointing to “sticky” inflationary...
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2024 CRE MORTGAGE LENDING ACTIVITY THROUGH Q3-24
Today’s post is written by Michael Green, Senior Commercial Loan Originator with Counsel Mortgage Group, LLC. Mike writes monthly on the commercial mortgage market. Check back each month for his commentary. Despite uncertainty in: Ø the economy, Ø the health and well-being of the CRE market, Ø Fed policy and interest rate movements, Ø the burdensome level of existing debt for all groups of borrowers, Ø international turmoil and wars, Ø domestic discord and outright violence, Ø and the prospects of a new federal government, the level of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding continued to increase in Q3-24. The total level...
January 11, 2025January 11, 2025
HAPPY HOLIDAYS!
Wishing you a very happy and safe holiday season, and a successful and prosperous New Year!
December 22, 2024December 22, 2024
POST-ELECTION CRE
Today’s post is written by Michael Green, Senior Commercial Loan Originator with Counsel Mortgage Group, LLC. Mike writes monthly on the commercial mortgage market. Check back each month for his commentary. Only 4 weeks out from the presidential election the CRE market is already anticipating changes that may come with the new administration. The Republican sweep of the Executive branch and both houses of Congress is expected to substantially impact both the number of policy changes and the size of those changes. Plodding through the numerous cabinet nominations and ambassadorships, and the theatre created by the counter-party responses to these,...
December 2, 2024December 2, 2024
NOVEMBER 2024 INTEREST RATES AND VALUES UPDATE
The Fed reduced the Fed Funds rate by 0.75% in the last few months, but mortgage rates have not come down. Currently, the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.84%. You can see the rate increased after the Fed decreased the Fed Funds rate in mid-September. The Fed reduced the Fed Funds rate to stave off increasing unemployment. Yet, US Treasury Bond rates and mortgage rates have not decreased. Why? One reason is the Federal Debt. The Debt is at a record high of $35.46 trillion. The Federal Debt is nicely explained...
November 25, 2024November 25, 2024
THE SLOWLY IMPROVING TREND – STNL
Today’s post is written by Michael Green, Senior Commercial Loan Originator with Counsel Mortgage Group, LLC. Mike writes monthly on the commercial mortgage market. Check back each month for his commentary. In Q3-24, for the 10th consecutive quarter, cap rates for single-tenant net lease (STNL) properties increased quarter-over-quarter in retail, office, and industrial. The blended cap rate increase was 3 bps (basis points) (6.70% to 6.73%). It shows that the biggest contributor to average cap rates came from retail. The primary reason for the long-standing increase in cap rates was relatively high interest rates in the market. Additionally, a...
November 4, 2024November 4, 2024
ATTENTION REALTORS: FREE LUNCH AND CE – REAL ESTATE FINANCE
Learn about real estate finance from an expert in the field. The more you know, the more you will be able to help your clients. Join us on Tuesday, October 22nd at 11:30 at Old Republic Title for a free lunch and 1 hour of CE. I will be presenting a class on real estate finance and will share some of the tips I’ve learned over 20 years in the business. Be better educated on loans, and bring questions to dispel the myths you’ve heard. Space is limited, RSVP to Jose Rodriguez at joser@ortc.com to reserve your spot. This should...
October 10, 2024October 10, 2024
WHY HIRE A MORTGAGE BROKER FOR A CRE LOAN?
Today’s post is written by Michael Green, Senior Commercial Loan Originator with Counsel Mortgage Group, LLC. Mike writes monthly on the commercial mortgage market. Check back each month for his commentary. This may be a fairly timely question, given that the Fed has just begun its new interest rate downward cycle. With the perceived pent-up demand for lenders to ramp up loans, it may seem like it’s a borrower’s market. We suggest that’s not the case. Lenders perceive that pent-up demand on the borrower’s side also. It’s likely to be some of both. If that’s the case, which party...
October 2, 2024October 2, 2024
LIKE A KID AT CHRISTMAS
Today’s post is written by Michael Green, Senior Commercial Loan Originator with Counsel Mortgage Group, LLC. Mike writes monthly on the commercial mortgage market. Check back each month for his commentary. That’s the pulse of the market folks. Borrowers and lenders all huddled around their computers waiting for Santa Powell and the FOMC elves to deliver their Sept. rate cut on Sept. 18. Lenders have created their list of qualified borrowers and properties, and borrowers have corralled their favorite lenders. Just a few more weeks … patience, patience! Maybe too much drama, but you get the point, and from...
August 31, 2024August 31, 2024
MORTGAGE RATES DIPPED
MORTGAGE RATES DIPPED In our post last week, we showed you how the yield on the 10-year bond dipped under 4% and that is a leading indicator and mortgage rates may be coming down. Well, yesterday, Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed the 30-year fixed mortgage at 6.47%, the lowest it has been in over a year. The 15-year fixed was at 5.63%. Now, this survey is based on past data and may not be representative of the current market. For instance, the 10-year bond actually retraced and touched 4% in the last week, thereby driving rates back up...
August 9, 2024August 9, 2024